Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.629253 1.726862 1.829186 1.944787 2.072165 2.208701 2.366738
2025-11-30 1.493059 1.629586 1.779520 1.957635 2.165108 2.401225 2.693306
2025-12-07 1.384113 1.539382 1.715138 1.931086 2.192492 2.503042 2.906735
2025-12-14 1.289338 1.453919 1.644444 1.884583 2.184057 2.552176 3.050551
2025-12-21 1.227125 1.400535 1.605283 1.869297 2.207598 2.636864 3.241062
2025-12-28 1.191415 1.375476 1.596953 1.888957 2.273330 2.777013 3.515232
2026-01-04 1.145072 1.334036 1.564870 1.874719 2.291691 2.853013 3.704782
2026-01-11 1.119338 1.316328 1.560764 1.895114 2.355782 2.994340 4.001492
2026-01-18 1.088487 1.290230 1.543917 1.896599 2.392621 3.098306 4.251223
2026-01-25 1.074052 1.284119 1.552140 1.931489 2.477448 3.277571 4.639735
2026-02-01 1.032846 1.241307 1.509644 1.893647 2.454285 3.291474 4.755185
2026-02-08 0.992454 1.198040 1.464673 1.849851 2.419203 3.283435 4.830528
2026-02-15 0.966371 1.173782 1.445639 1.843635 2.442426 3.373134 5.098288
2026-02-22 0.948121 1.159314 1.439310 1.855244 2.493383 3.512030 5.477515
2026-03-01 0.918953 1.128929 1.409571 1.830819 2.486278 3.553146 5.674392
2026-03-08 0.885552 1.091663 1.368792 1.787994 2.447197 3.536113 5.751900
2026-03-15 0.863511 1.069238 1.347992 1.773906 2.452983 3.596847 5.998110
2026-03-22 0.852982 1.062263 1.348669 1.792024 2.511864 3.756373 6.482457
2026-03-29 0.833491 1.042140 1.329679 1.778904 2.517768 3.819417 6.761827
2026-04-05 0.824595 1.036533 1.331346 1.797696 2.578378 3.989950 7.326428
2026-04-12 0.811108 1.023972 1.322319 1.799064 2.608819 4.105137 7.779963
2026-04-19 0.806941 1.024480 1.332431 1.831189 2.695014 4.339321 8.600891
2026-04-26 0.784616 0.998301 1.301961 1.796344 2.659149 4.320953 8.723077